Unconsciously, the third quarter has been more than half of the year. Looking back on the performance of industrial naphthalene in the first half of the year, it seems unsatisfactory. However, in August, naphthalene is still in a bad situation, highlighting the encirclement and continuing the upward mode, breaking through the 4000 yuan / ton level. Compared with the rising prices of naphthalene in 18 years, it is not difficult to find that the industrial naphthalene has been falling all the way this year, from a high of 5000 yuan at the beginning of the year to a low of 3500 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices is 1500 yuan / ton. After falling to the bottom at the end of May, the naphthalene Market has been in a slow recovery stage. Up to now, the performance of industrial naphthalene in all coal tar deep-processing products is still commendable, but whether it can regain the glory of 18 years remains to be seen. Zhongyu information analysis is as follows.
              

從成本面來(lái)看，近期煤焦油利空面一再發(fā)酵，價(jià)格一跌再跌。縱使環(huán)保趨嚴(yán)下，供應(yīng)低位依舊存支撐，但需求弱勢(shì)局面難改，下游為保證自身利益，對(duì)原料價(jià)格步步打壓。目前下游深加工產(chǎn)品中，除工業(yè)萘、洗油外，其余產(chǎn)品皆弱勢(shì)，尤其是煤瀝青和蒽油，終端需求萎縮下，其運(yùn)行難有起色，價(jià)格向低位靠攏。另外，炭黑方面，產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題依舊凸出，企業(yè)間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈，且中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)下，終端輪胎出口受限，對(duì)原料持打壓情緒。剛需不振情況下，短線煤焦油價(jià)格低位震蕩運(yùn)行，成本支撐削弱。

From the cost point of view, the recent coal tar oil negative noodles fermentation again and again, the price fell again and again. Even though the environmental protection is getting stricter and the supply level is still low, the weak demand situation is hard to change. In order to ensure their own interests, the downstream companies have gradually suppressed the prices of raw materials. At present, in the downstream deep-processing products, except for industrial naphthalene and wash oil, the other products are weak, especially coal tar pitch and anthracene oil. Under the shrinking terminal demand, their operation is difficult to improve, and the prices are close to the low level. In addition, in terms of carbon black, the problem of overcapacity is still prominent, the competition among enterprises is fierce, and under the Sino US trade war, the export of terminal tires is limited, and the raw materials are depressed. Under the condition of weak demand, the short-term coal tar price fluctuates at a low level, and the cost support is weakened.

下游需求方面來(lái)看，近期萘法苯酐在高成本與低需求的雙雙夾擊下，苦不堪言。從下圖可以明顯看出，以山東為例，目前萘法苯酐廠家利潤(rùn)面已進(jìn)入虧損，虧損幅度在170元/噸附近，廠家對(duì)高價(jià)位原料已無(wú)力接受，議價(jià)情緒開(kāi)始升溫，相關(guān)鄰法高位走貨時(shí)有讓利，對(duì)萘法更是不利。下游增塑劑市場(chǎng)亦是面臨成本的壓力，但漲勢(shì)乏力，對(duì)苯酐價(jià)格開(kāi)始抵觸。層層遞推下，萘剛需面難有利好支撐。

In terms of downstream demand, naphthalene phthalic anhydride is suffering from both high cost and low demand. It can be clearly seen from the figure below that, taking Shandong as an example, at present, the profit margin of naphthalene phthalic anhydride manufacturers has entered into a loss, and the loss range is around 170 yuan / ton. The manufacturers are unable to accept the high-price raw materials, and the bargaining sentiment begins to heat up. When the related neighboring methods sell goods at a high level, it is even more unfavorable to the naphthalene process. The downstream plasticizer market is also facing the pressure of cost, but the rise is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride begins to conflict. Layer by layer recursive, naphthalene hard to support.

在成本與需求雙雙利空的形勢(shì)下，工業(yè)萘之所以能維持漲勢(shì)，供應(yīng)面功不可沒(méi)。山西“二青會(huì)”的舉辦，當(dāng)?shù)丨h(huán)保進(jìn)一步趨嚴(yán)，再加上煤瀝青、蒽油等占據(jù)深加工企業(yè)主導(dǎo)的產(chǎn)品行情弱勢(shì)，開(kāi)工積極性不高，山東、河北以及河南等等地區(qū)亦然。場(chǎng)內(nèi)集中降負(fù)荷及檢修頻頻發(fā)生。萘現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)緊缺，且短期內(nèi)開(kāi)工難有提升，供應(yīng)面始終是支撐。

In the situation of negative cost and demand, the supply side plays an important role in maintaining the rising trend of industrial naphthalene. With the holding of the "second youth association" in Shanxi, the local environmental protection has become more stringent. In addition, coal tar pitch, anthracene oil and other products dominated by deep-processing enterprises are in a weak market, and the enthusiasm to start construction is not high, so is Shandong, Hebei and Henan. Centralized load reduction and maintenance occur frequently. Naphthalene spot supply is in short supply, and it is difficult to improve in the short term, so the supply side is always the support.

綜上，精萘廠家認(rèn)為，萘供應(yīng)面緊張，支撐深加工企業(yè)挺價(jià)，但需求弱勢(shì)，對(duì)萘發(fā)展始終是制約，預(yù)計(jì)短線工業(yè)萘市場(chǎng)高位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加重，價(jià)格漸趨于平穩(wěn)，不排除走跌的可能。長(zhǎng)線來(lái)看，大的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境多不景氣，相關(guān)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格皆不理想，萘處于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中一環(huán)，價(jià)格走跌亦不可避免，很難重回18年高位。

To sum up, naphthalene manufacturers believe that the supply of naphthalene is tight, which supports the price of deep-processing enterprises, but the weak demand has always restricted the development of naphthalene. It is expected that the high-level risk in the short-term industrial naphthalene Market will increase, and the price will gradually stabilize, so it is impossible to rule out the possibility of falling. In the long run, the economic environment is more depressed, and the prices of related products are not ideal. Naphthalene is in a link of the industrial chain, and the price decline is inevitable. It is difficult to return to the 18 year high.